Investment research firm IC Insights has maintained its forecast that Ghana's economy will grow by 6.4% (±0.5 percentage points) in 2026, following the country's strong economic performance in the first quarter of the year.

The firm believes the impressive first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures provide enough evidence that the economy is performing better than expected. As a result, it expects the government to revise its current 4.8% growth target upward during the mid-year budget review scheduled for July 2026.

According to Ghana's first-quarter GDP data, the economy expanded by 6.4% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 6.2% growth recorded during the same period in 2025. The latest figures suggest that the country's economic recovery is becoming broader, with stronger consumer spending supporting growth beyond the mining and extractive industries.

IC Insights said it expects Ghana to maintain this positive momentum throughout the year.

"We view Ghana's first-quarter real GDP growth as an early indication of another year of strong economic expansion, outperforming the authorities' current target of 4.8%," the firm stated.

The industry sector recorded the strongest performance, growing by 6.9% compared to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the services sector grew by 7.1%, while agriculture expanded by 4.0%. Although both sectors recorded slower growth than the previous year, services remained the biggest contributor to the country's overall economic growth.

The research firm highlighted strong improvements in trade, digital services and transport activities. The trade sub-sector grew by 9.0%, a sharp increase from 3.3% a year earlier. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) recorded impressive growth of 25.2%, almost doubling last year's 13.1%, while transport and haulage services expanded by 13.0%.

IC Insights attributed the stronger performance in trade largely to lower inflation, which boosted consumer purchasing power. Inflation dropped significantly to 3.2% in March 2026 from 22.4% in March 2025, allowing households, businesses and government spending to recover.

Despite the overall positive outlook, the agriculture sector continued to face challenges. Lower output from the cocoa and fishing industries slowed the sector's growth. Cocoa production expanded by just 3.8% in the first quarter of 2026, compared with a much stronger 23.1% growth during the same period in 2025.

However, IC Insights believes the slowdown is partly due to the high growth recorded last year rather than a weakening of the sector. The firm remains optimistic that agriculture, particularly cocoa, will recover during the rest of the year.

It expects government plans to issue a US$1.0 billion cedi-denominated domestic bond before August 2026 to finance cocoa purchases to support production and contribute to stronger growth in the sector.

Overall, IC Insights expects Ghana's economy to continue expanding steadily in 2026, supported by resilient consumer spending, a strong services sector and continued government efforts to strengthen key industries.